When to Dump RTR Standard Cards

As a data geek, and the guy who runs MetaMox, lots of people are asking me when to dump their Return to Ravnica Standard staples. Basically you're weighing how much you want to play a card versus how much they're going to drop in price. If you haven't already started dumping them, get moving before they're worth nothing. Look back at Innistrad or Scars where they start falling somewhere in April through June and bottom out usually by October. The real question is WHAT you should be moving.

From econ 101, we know that price is a function of demand divided by supply. On rotation, the supply is static, but the demand plummets IF the card was previously a staple in standard, EVEN IF the card is played in eternal formats. Here are the corollaries:

If a card is a standard staple, and an eternal staple, the price will drop a little.
If a card is a standard staple, and not an eternal staple, the price will drop significantly.
If a card is not a standard staple, but it is an eternal staple, the price will not move much at all.
If a card is not a standard staple, and not an eternal staple, the price probably won't move much at all, but it probably wasn't worth much in the first place..

Not all eternal formats are equal though. Legacy players tend to be a little older and often have real jobs that enable them to afford $250-300 on a single Underground Sea. In other words, a few event finishes in a Legacy event can drive the price of a card far more than any other format. That's not to say that Commander and casual demand doesn't affect prices. MTG has millions of players in the US alone. This is why a card like Doubling Season is unplayed in any format other than Commander, but after 2 Modern printings is still a $14 card. Vampiric Tutor is in the same boat with 2 Legacy printings at ~$22. Lightning Greaves is a great example where it only gets some fringe competitive play in Legacy MUD and Modern Zur, and with 4 Modern printings still maintains a $4 price tag because it's the third most played card in Commander.

Legacy Playables

Deathrite Shaman will take a small hit as Standard Dredge became a thing, driving up demand a little, and that demand will die off when RTR rotates. He was a Modern powerhouse that kept Jund at the top for so long, and he's currently the 5th most played card in Legacy. He lost some Legacy gas when American Trueblade took over the meta, but now that Deathblade is back on top, he's recovered some lost ground. He even sees a little play in Commander. If you're not playing him in Legacy, move him, but if you are, it's not going to be worth moving him.

Abrupt Decay is played a lot more in Standard and a bit less in eternal formats. It'll take a slightly bigger loss, but will still hold some value after rotation. Similarly, move it if you're not using it, but keep it if you are.

Supreme Verdict will drop a bit just like Snapcaster Mage and Geist of Saint Traft did, but because it's not a $20 card, the drop will only be a couple bucks. It's played in Legacy and Modern, but the supply stays the same while the demand plummets on rotation. If you have one or two and you play Modern/Legacy, it might not be worth moving to have to pick it back up again soon, but if you have more, or don't play eternal, move them. On a side note, ignore Geist of Saint Traft's pricing from November 2013 onwards as a basis for most modeling. His priced used to be propped up a lot because of his solid demand in Legacy, but True-Name Nemesis practically removed him from the format.

Modern Playables

Shocks are heavily played in Standard and they see some decent play in Modern. They're practically unplayed in Legacy though. On rotation, all those non-mono standard decks running 4-8 won't need them anymore. They'll fall to $3-5 each, and slowly climb over time, exactly as fastlands and checklands did. Definitely don't keep more than a playset. If you're interested in seriously playing Modern, dump now, and start re-acquiring in late October. Make sure you have a full playset before mid January 2015 when speculators start bringing prices up for the wind-up of Modern season. That November - December 2014 window will probably have the lowest price for shocks until they're reprinted in "Ravnica, Thrice Visited" when you're showing your currently unborn daughter how to play magic.

Voice of Resurgence is a staple in both Modern and Standard. When he rotates, all those Standard decks won't need him anymore, and he won't have $19 worth of demand It'll drop significantly by year end, just like Snapcaster Mage and Geist of Saint Traft. Unless he's reprinted or the Modern meta shifts significantly, he'll probably make up some ground when Modern season picks back up again in early 2015 though. Sphinx's Revelation, and Domri Rade are in similar positions, some with Commander play. Dump them if you can, and pick them back up early 2015 for half the price.

Casual Playables

These cards see little or no play in standard, but decent or substantial play in Commander. Their price will probably hold or drop negligibly.

Chromatic Lantern is $2 solely off of Commander.
Trostani, Selesnya's Voice sees little play in standard, and a bit more in Commander. She's at $2 and will probably stay there for a while.
Worldspine Wurm is holding at $2 off of virtually no Legacy and Modern play at all. Like Gideon, Champion of Justice though, I'm on the fence about him because of just how little they're played in Commander. I'm estimating small or no drops here.
Aurelia, the Warleader is holding at $3 as Prime Speaker Zegana is holding at $2. They've both got a little Commander play and virtually no competitive play, so they probably won't drop much.
At $3.50, Master Biomancer is a tough call. He gets a little Commander play, and a bit less Standard and Modern play. He'll probably fall to $2-3.
Progenitor Mimic is almost strictly a Commander card and will do fine.
I think Master of Cruelties was too overcosted to really be playable in Standard. He's seen a little play in Commander so he'll survive without too much of a loss though.

Sell! Sell! Sell!

Obzedat, Ghost Council is a $6 card based largely off of its standard presence. It's still played in Commander though, so I'd place it at $2-3 or so by year end.

Everything else will drop to a couple bucks (or less) because they just don't have the eternal demand. We're talking:

Jace, Architect of Thought has been in the $4-5 range for a bit with a lot of standard gas. Expect him to drop a couple bucks as his eternal play just isn't enough. Boros Reckoner is in the same boat.
Vraska the Unseen has been hovering at just under $3 but just doesn't have the gas in Commander to keep that up. She'll probably be in the dollar bin by year end.
Nightveil Specter has seen a wild ride. As Monoblue Devotion and Monoblack Devotion became tier 1 standard decks, he spiked a lot, but has been falling over time. He's already down to $3-4 and sees very little play in eternal. Blood Baron of Vizkopa will follow him on the way down.
I wanted Ral Zarek to bring back Legacy Stasis, but as it hasn't happened yet, it probably won't. He's got a little Commander and Modern play but not enough.
Legion's Initiative is a card I wanted to love. I cracked this and Aurelia, the Warleader for some crazy shenanigans at the prerelease. Prepare for the bulk bin though.
Savageborn Hydra is interesting. I'd expect him to do a lot better in Commander decks, but he's just not there. Move him if you've got him. Pick him up in the bulk bin later if you want him.

When to Buy Again

Not all is lost on Return to Ravnica though. As I said above, some of these cards see play in Legacy, Modern and Commander. Most will have bottomed out by late October, and you can start picking them back up then. Cards that are playable in Modern should be picked back up by the end of January before everyone jumps back in for Modern season.